HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2019-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-01.7% chanceGlide win
2019-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-12.4% chanceMazama win
2019-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-22.6% chanceBanks win
2019-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-22.9% chanceRogue River win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.0% chanceThurston win
2019-10-01Chronological backtest
CE
CentralAway
Final (home–away) 2-43.2% chanceCentral win
2019-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.1% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2019-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-54.1% chanceMannahouse Christian Acad. win
2019-10-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-35.4% chanceNorth Salem win
2019-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-45.8% chanceGladstone win
2019-10-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-26.1% chanceThe Dalles / Dufur win
2019-10-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-06.3% chancePendleton win
2019-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-26.5% chanceCentury win
2019-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-06.6% chanceCascade Christian win
2019-10-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-06.8% chanceRogue Valley Adventist Acad. win
2019-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-17.3% chanceJunction City win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-38.6% chanceSutherlin win
2019-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-39.4% chanceGrants Pass win
2019-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-09.9% chanceHood River Valley win
2019-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-210.3% chanceMcMinnville win
2019-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-110.6% chanceCanby win
2019-10-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-010.7% chanceCascade win
2019-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-111.3% chanceGrants Pass win
2019-10-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-111.4% chanceFranklin win
2019-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-311.4% chanceCentral Linn win
2019-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-311.7% chanceCottage Grove win
2019-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-313.3% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2019-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-213.7% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win
2019-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-113.8% chanceBeaverton win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.0% chanceLakeridge win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-314.8% chanceCrescent Valley win
2019-10-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-014.9% chanceJefferson win
2019-09-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-1014.9% chanceFour Rivers win
2019-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-015.5% chanceThurston win
2019-09-19Chronological backtest
CE
CentralAway
Final (home–away) 1-216.4% chanceCentral win
2019-10-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-216.7% chanceNorth Medford win
2019-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-116.7% chanceCottage Grove win
2019-11-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-117.1% chanceSantiam Christian win
2019-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 7-117.4% chanceSilverton win
2019-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-217.5% chanceMountainside win
2019-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-417.7% chanceCreswell win
2019-11-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.7% chanceFranklin win
2019-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-317.8% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2019-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-618.2% chanceIllinois Valley win
2019-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-118.3% chanceAstoria win
2019-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-018.8% chanceIllinois Valley win
2019-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-018.9% chanceMcNary win
2019-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-219.5% chanceCoquille / Myrtle Point win
2019-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-219.7% chanceCascade Christian win
2019-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-120.3% chanceRoseburg win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-24 | | 1-0 | Glide | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-21 | | 3-1 | Mazama | 2.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-15 | | 3-2 | Banks | 2.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-16 | | 3-2 | Rogue River | 2.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 2-1 | Thurston | 3.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-01 | CE Central at | 2-4 | Central | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-12 | | 1-0 | Baker / Powder Valley | 4.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-19 | | 4-5 | Mannahouse Christian Acad. | 4.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-24 | | 2-3 | North Salem | 5.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-23 | | 2-4 | Gladstone | 5.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-31 | | 3-2 | The Dalles / Dufur | 6.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-31 | | 2-0 | Pendleton | 6.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-16 | | 0-2 | Century | 6.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-28 | | 2-0 | Cascade Christian | 6.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-30 | | 2-0 | Rogue Valley Adventist Acad. | 6.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-03 | | 2-1 | Junction City | 7.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 1-3 | Sutherlin | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-21 | | 1-3 | Grants Pass | 9.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-26 | | 3-0 | Hood River Valley | 9.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-19 | | 5-2 | McMinnville | 10.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-17 | | 0-1 | Canby | 10.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-01 | | 1-0 | Cascade | 10.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-18 | | 0-1 | Grants Pass | 11.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-24 | | 0-1 | Franklin | 11.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-19 | | 2-3 | Central Linn | 11.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-24 | | 1-3 | Cottage Grove | 11.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-26 | | 2-3 | East Linn Christian | 13.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-03 | | 1-2 | Milo Adventist Acad. | 13.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-14 | | 2-1 | Beaverton | 13.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 0-1 | Lakeridge | 14.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 1-3 | Crescent Valley | 14.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-01 | | 2-0 | Jefferson | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-09 | | 1-10 | Four Rivers | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-19 | | 1-0 | Thurston | 15.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-19 | CE Central at | 1-2 | Central | 16.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-08 | | 1-2 | North Medford | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-10 | | 2-1 | Cottage Grove | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-11-06 | | 4-1 | Santiam Christian | 17.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-21 | | 7-1 | Silverton | 17.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-10 | | 0-2 | Mountainside | 17.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-24 | | 2-4 | Creswell | 17.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-11-12 | | 1-2 | Franklin | 17.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-28 | | 2-3 | North Clackamas Christian | 17.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-18 | | 4-6 | Illinois Valley | 18.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-03 | | 2-1 | Astoria | 18.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-23 | | 2-0 | Illinois Valley | 18.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-04 | | 1-0 | McNary | 18.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-14 | | 3-2 | Coquille / Myrtle Point | 19.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-23 | | 0-2 | Cascade Christian | 19.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-15 | | 3-1 | Roseburg | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |