HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2022-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-10.0% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-11.0% chanceDamascus Christian win
2022-10-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-22.1% chanceHillsboro win
2022-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.2% chanceCrook County win
2022-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.3% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win
2022-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-24.3% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2022-11-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-24.8% chanceWest Albany win
2022-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-15.4% chanceSandy win
2022-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-16.6% chanceTigard win
2022-10-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-07.0% chanceNelson win
2022-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-07.6% chanceNorth Medford win
2022-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-27.6% chanceLebanon win
2022-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-37.7% chanceMcDaniel win
2022-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-27.8% chanceElmira win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-48.3% chanceLiberty win
2022-11-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-38.4% chanceNorth Marion win
2022-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-08.6% chanceGrant win
2022-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-38.8% chanceYamhill-Carlton win
2022-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-110.0% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win
2022-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-110.3% chanceCorbett win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-211.0% chanceForest Grove win
2022-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-211.0% chanceMarist Catholic win
2022-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-211.6% chancePhoenix win
2022-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-111.7% chanceMarshfield win
2022-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-311.9% chanceOregon City win
2022-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-212.1% chancePhoenix win
2022-11-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-212.5% chanceWestview win
2022-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-412.5% chanceLake Oswego win
2022-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-212.7% chanceDayton win
2022-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-513.0% chanceAloha win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-113.2% chanceNorth Salem win
2022-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-213.5% chanceSandy win
2022-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-113.6% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win
2022-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-313.6% chanceLa Grande win
2022-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-013.6% chanceJunction City win
2022-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-413.9% chanceEstacada win
2022-11-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.2% chanceGresham win
2022-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.3% chanceDouglas win
2022-09-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-214.4% chanceRiverside win
2022-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-114.6% chanceLiberty win
2022-10-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-314.6% chanceMountainside win
2022-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-014.9% chanceTualatin win
2022-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.1% chanceFranklin win
2022-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-015.3% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2022-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.3% chanceBarlow win
2022-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-115.4% chanceGladstone win
2022-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-015.5% chanceLa Grande win
2022-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-315.8% chanceLincoln win
2022-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-215.9% chanceSisters win
2022-10-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-116.3% chanceSeaside win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-03 | | 0-1 | De La Salle North Catholic | 0.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 0-1 | Damascus Christian | 1.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-27 | | 4-2 | Hillsboro | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-20 | | 2-1 | Crook County | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-05 | | 2-1 | Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. | 3.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-30 | | 0-2 | North Clackamas Christian | 4.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-08 | | 1-2 | West Albany | 4.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-22 | | 3-1 | Sandy | 5.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-20 | | 0-1 | Tigard | 6.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-24 | | 1-0 | Nelson | 7.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-27 | | 2-0 | North Medford | 7.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-20 | | 0-2 | Lebanon | 7.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-06 | | 1-3 | McDaniel | 7.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-17 | | 3-2 | Elmira | 7.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 1-4 | Liberty | 8.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-05 | | 2-3 | North Marion | 8.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-27 | | 2-0 | Grant | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-22 | | 0-3 | Yamhill-Carlton | 8.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-13 | | 2-1 | Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. | 10.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-13 | | 0-1 | Corbett | 10.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 5-2 | Forest Grove | 11.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-04 | | 3-2 | Marist Catholic | 11.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-09 | | 1-2 | Phoenix | 11.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-11 | | 3-1 | Marshfield | 11.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-20 | | 2-3 | Oregon City | 11.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-01 | | 1-2 | Phoenix | 12.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-05 | | 0-2 | Westview | 12.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-12 | | 3-4 | Lake Oswego | 12.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-01 | | 1-2 | Dayton | 12.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-01 | | 2-5 | Aloha | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 2-1 | North Salem | 13.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-28 | | 5-2 | Sandy | 13.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-29 | | 4-1 | Willamette Valley Christian | 13.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-25 | | 1-3 | La Grande | 13.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-22 | | 1-0 | Junction City | 13.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-22 | | 1-4 | Estacada | 13.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-05 | | 0-1 | Gresham | 14.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-14 | | 0-1 | Douglas | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-10 | | 3-2 | Riverside | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-10 | | 3-1 | Liberty | 14.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-29 | | 2-3 | Mountainside | 14.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-20 | | 1-0 | Tualatin | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-20 | | 1-2 | Franklin | 15.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-17 | | 1-0 | East Linn Christian | 15.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-05 | | 1-2 | Barlow | 15.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-04 | | 3-1 | Gladstone | 15.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-05 | | 1-0 | La Grande | 15.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-26 | | 1-3 | Lincoln | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-03 | | 0-2 | Sisters | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-29 | | 2-1 | Seaside | 16.3% | Chronological backtest |